Forecast of sea surface temperature off the Peruvian coast using an autoregressive integrated moving average model

Authors

  • Carlos Quispe Centro de Investigaciones en Modelado Oceanográfi co y Biológico Pesquero (CIMOBP), Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE), Apdo. 22, Callao, Perú.
  • Sara Purca Centro de Investigaciones en Modelado Oceanográfi co y Biológico Pesquero (CIMOBP), Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE), Apdo. 22, Callao, Perú.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15381/rpb.v14i1.2164

Keywords:

ENSO, ARIMA model, sea surface temperature, time series, Peru

Abstract

El Niño connects globally climate, ecosystems and socio-economic activities. Since 1980 this event has been tried to be predicted, but until now the statistical and dynamical models are insuffi cient. Thus, the objective of the present work was to explore using an autoregressive moving average model the effect of El Niño over the sea surface temperature (TSM) off the Peruvian coast. The work involved 5 stages: identifi cation, estimation, diagnostic checking, forecasting and validation. Simple and partial autocorrelation functions (FAC and FACP) were used to identify and reformulate the orders of the model parameters, as well as Akaike information criterium (AIC) and Schwarz criterium (SC) for the selection of the best models during the diagnostic checking. Among the main results the models ARIMA(12,0,11) were proposed, which simulated monthly conditions in agreement with the observed conditions off the Peruvian coast: cold conditions at the end of 2004, and neutral conditions at the beginning of 2005.

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Published

08/13/2007

Issue

Vol. 14 No. 1 (2007)

Section

Congress articles

License

Copyright (c) 2007 Carlos Quispe, Sara Purca

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

AUTHORS RETAIN THEIR RIGHTS:

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b. Authors retain their right to share, copy, distribute, perform and publicly communicate their article (eg, to place their article in an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in the Revista Peruana de Biologia.

c. Authors retain theirs right to make a subsequent publication of their work, to use the article or any part thereof (eg a compilation of his papers, lecture notes, thesis, or a book), always indicating its initial publication in the Revista Peruana de Biologia (the originator of the work, journal, volume, number and date).

How to Cite

Quispe, Carlos, and Sara Purca. 2007. “Forecast of Sea Surface Temperature off the Peruvian Coast Using an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model”. Revista Peruana De Biología 14 (1): 109-15. https://doi.org/10.15381/rpb.v14i1.2164.