Revistas de investigación UNMSM

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Supply Scenarios from a System Dynamics Approach

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15381/idata.v25i2.16636

Keywords:

LPG production, demand, supply, scenarios, system dynamics

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the problems of LPG supply in Peru, based on various factors that have a significant impact on its value chain. The complexity of the analysis requires the use of various techniques and methodologies, such as the system dynamics used in this study, which, using a proposed model, generates various hypotheses to explain the behavior patterns of the analyzed variable and to understand causal logic over time when it interacts with other variables. As a result, a model that generates possible scenarios that confirm the decrease in LPG production over time due to inaction with respect to natural gas production, and highlights the need to encourage investments in exploration efforts to further increase natural gas reserves, is proposed. The research concludes that it is necessary to establish public policies to achieve market conditions that ensure LPG supply.

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Author Biographies

  • Beatriz Juana Adaniya Higa, Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería, Lima, Peru

    Petrochemical engineer and PhD in Business Management. Currently working as professor at the School of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Petrochemical Engineering of Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería (Lima, Peru).

  • Ricardo Rodríguez Ulloa, Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería. Lima, Peru

    Systems Engineer. Currently president of Instituto Andino de Sistemas (IAS) and professor at the School of Industrial and Systems Engineering of Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería (Lima, Perú).

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Published

2022-12-31 — Updated on 2023-01-23

Issue

Vol. 25 No. 2 (2022)

Section

Producción y Gestión

License

Copyright (c) 2022 Beatriz Juana Adaniya Higa, Ricardo Rodríguez Ulloa

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

AUTHORS RETAIN THEIR RIGHTS:

a. Authors retain their trade mark rights and patent, and also on any process or procedure described in the article.

b. Authors retain their right to share, copy, distribute, perform and publicly communicate their article (eg, to place their article in an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in the INDUSTRIAL DATA.

c. Authors retain theirs right to make a subsequent publication of their work, to use the article or any part thereof (eg a compilation of his papers, lecture notes, thesis, or a book), always indicating the source of publication (the originator of the work, journal, volume, number and date).

How to Cite

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Supply Scenarios from a System Dynamics Approach. (2023). Industrial Data, 25(2), 115-142. https://doi.org/10.15381/idata.v25i2.16636