Precipitation forecast on the basin contributing to the La Esperanza reservoir using HadCM3 climate model

Authors

  • Francisco Velásquez Intriago Higher Polytechnic Agricultural School of Manabí Manuel Félix López. Calceta-Manabí- Ecuador
  • Carlos Cabrera Carranza Academic Department of Geographical Engineering. Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos
  • Francisco Alcántara Boza Investigation Institute. Faculty of Geological, Mining, Metallurgical and Geographical Engineering
  • Leonel Lucas Vidal Higher Polytechnic Agricultural School of Manabí Manuel Félix López. Calceta-Manabí- Ecuador

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15381/iigeo.v22i43.16683

Keywords:

Forecast; hydrological data; average precipitation; isohyets

Abstract

Rainfall forecasts as a hydrological variable indicate the possible amounts of rainfall in a future period. Contemplating the temporal and spatial variation, the objective was to forecast rainfall over the basin contributing to the “La Esperanza” reservoir by applying the HadCM3 global climate model. Through retrospective information, historical rainfall information was analyzed between the years 1980-2017, from 50 rainfall stations near the area under study, using the Excel 2016 software, to synthesize numerical data in the statistical analysis and hydrological data estimation, through the methods: neighborhood averages, normal and regression ratios; from which prospective information was obtained through the use of ArcGIS 10.4.1 software, extracting 456 average precipitations, by means of the isohyets method, obtaining the real observed average precipitations, to which the constants of anomalies of the HadCM3 global climatic model were applied. The results indicate that rainfall in the study area tends to increase in each period of years analyzed: 2010-2039 with 16.75%, 2040-2069 with 47% and 2070-2099 with 80,16% increase with respect observed average real precipitation: 1759.64 mm. The present study proposes a forecasting tool for the entities in charge of water resource planning for decision making.

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Published

2019-07-15

Issue

Vol. 22 No. 43 (2019)

Section

Artículos

License

Copyright (c) 2019 Francisco Velásquez I., Carlos Cabrera C., Francisco Alcántara B., Leonel Lucas V.

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

AUTHORS RETAIN THEIR RIGHTS:

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b. Authors retain their right to share, copy, distribute, perform and publicly communicate their article (eg, to place their article in an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in the Rev. Inst. investig. Fac. minas metal cienc. geogr.

c. Authors retain theirs right to make a subsequent publication of their work, to use the article or any part thereof (eg a compilation of his papers, lecture notes, thesis, or a book), always indicating the source of publication (the originator of the work, journal, volume, number and date).

How to Cite

Velásquez Intriago, F., Cabrera Carranza, C., Alcántara Boza, F., & Lucas Vidal, L. (2019). Precipitation forecast on the basin contributing to the La Esperanza reservoir using HadCM3 climate model. Revista Del Instituto De investigación De La Facultad De Minas, Metalurgia Y Ciencias geográficas, 22(43), 29-36. https://doi.org/10.15381/iigeo.v22i43.16683