Huaraz city urban growth modeling through logistic regression
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15381/iigeo.v24i47.20644Keywords:
Urban growth, logistic regression, geomatic, spatial trend, HuarazAbstract
In 1941, Huaraz city was affected by a flood from Palcacocha glacier lagoon, thenceforth the city grew significantly occupying areas exposed to floods. For future risks analysis, city growth prospective evaluation is necessary, being logistic regression a widely used technique. Using geomatic tools, aerial and satellite photographs from 1948, 1962, 1977, 2011 and 2018 were visually and geometrically corrected taking cadastral map 1:10,000 as base cartography. With complementary field work polygons of urban/populated areas were obtained within a 25 km² analysis zone, with which the historical spatial trend and growth characteristics were analyzed in relation to variables such slope, altitude, distance from city middle center, direction growth and point density; which were used as independent variables in the regression logistic model being the dependent the 2018 urban/populated coverage. Between 1948 and 2018 Huaraz grew 598% in South-North direction with bias towards East. Excluding 2018 urban/populated area, 21% of the analysis zone has probabilities of housing new urban/populated areas greater than 0.2, prevailing 0.2 to 0.4 probabilities with 11%.
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Copyright (c) 2021 Ricardo Ray Villanueva Ramírez, Carlos Del Valle Jurado
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b. Authors retain their right to share, copy, distribute, perform and publicly communicate their article (eg, to place their article in an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in the Rev. Inst. investig. Fac. minas metal cienc. geogr.
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