Impact of the economic, health and political crises on GDP and Inflation in Bolivia (1988-2020)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15381/pc.v28i2.23465Keywords:
Crisis, Growth, Inflation, VARSAbstract
The objective of this research study is to estimate the effect of crises, such as fluctuations in natural resource prices, the subprime crisis, politics and the covid-19 pandemic, on gross domestic product and inflation, using a VARS model. The collapse in commodity prices had unfavorable consequences for GDP and immediately showed a seasonal trend of growth, as well as a negative impact on prices. The initial reaction of GDP and inflation to the shocks caused by the subprime crisis was negative and minor compared to other short-term crises. Inflation was affected more significantly than GDP during the political crisis, and the price shock had a positive impact. The effect of covid-19 had a greater negative influence on economic growth than the subprime crises, on the prices of natural resources and on politics in Bolivia.
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Copyright (c) 2023 Ernesto Bernal Martinez
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