An Indicator to Measure the Regional Social Risk: The Case of the Cajamarca Department in Peru

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15381/pc.v27i2.23649

Keywords:

Risk estimation, probability of occurrence, social risk index, risk measurement

Abstract

This research starts with a literature synthesis on risk and its measurement; then, as a second point, presents the methodological process for the construction of an index to measure social risk for Cajamarca’s department in Peru, which has been based on the application of probability theory. The estimation methodology addresses two approaches: i) the probability of occurrence of an event that generates a total or partial paralysis of the private sector activity for a specific month, and ii) the probability of occurrence of at least one day of paralysis for a specific month. The data used has been recorded for the period between January 1992 and December 2022, based on journalistic information. The results are plotted in two-time series which show the evolution of the Cajamarca Social Risk Index in basis points for both methodological approaches. Additionally, I present a comparison of the annualized probability of occurrence of Cajamarca’s private sector total or partial paralysis for five-year periods, regional governors, and political parties.

Author Biography

  • Oscar Manuel Mendoza Vargas, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos. Lima, Peru

    Economist graduated with honours from the Professional Academic School of Economics of the National University of Cajamarca. Master in Business Administration, graduated with honours from the Graduate School of the César Vallejo Private University. PhD student in Economics at the Graduate School of the Universidad Mayor de San Marcos.  Manager of the SAC Resources branch. Dean of the College of Economists of Cajamarca.

    Consultant and researcher with experience in product development of consulting and technical assistance in business and financial management, business and sector research, institutional strengthening, planning and organization. Expert and senior management advisor in policy formulation, supplier development, cluster analysis, business development services, market access, competitiveness, and business incubation. Quality management systems auditor.

    Books author Systematization of Support in Policy-Making on the Development of Local Suppliers (2007), Tools for enhancing business management (2009), Cajamarca: a mining cluster (2011), Competitive diamond for coffee and cocoa industry in Jaen and San Ignacio (2011); and Systematization of the project for strengthening the business management of Shahuindo SAC suppliers (2020). With scientific articles in the areas of supplier development, financial inclusion, business productivity, productive conglomerates, and dynamic macroeconomics.

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Published

2022-12-31

Issue

Vol. 27 No. 2 (2022)

Section

Artículos

License

Copyright (c) 2022 Oscar Manuel Mendoza Vargas

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How to Cite

An Indicator to Measure the Regional Social Risk: The Case of the Cajamarca Department in Peru. (2022). Pensamiento Crítico, 27(2), 57-77. https://doi.org/10.15381/pc.v27i2.23649