The Spillover Effects of the Global Shock of COVID-19: The Case of Poverty in Peru, A Non-Experimental Synthetic Control Design
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15381/pc.v29i2.29795Keywords:
COVID-19, Spillovers, Monetary PovertyAbstract
This work focuses on two problems facing developing countries: unexpected and unusual external shocks and poverty. Specifically, for the Peruvian case and based on a non-experimental design of Synthetic Control with spillovers developed by Cao & Dowd (2022), the work estimates the spillover effects on monetary poverty in Peru in the COVID-19 shock between the quarter 2020.II to the quarter 2021. IV. Spillovers are associated with people's behavior of non-compliance with work confinement and lack of health protection in said period in 59 provinces of Peru. From the estimates it is obtained that seventeen treated provinces had statistically significant spillover effects and that close to 33% of the increase in poverty in the COVID-19 period is explained by the spillover effects associated with people's behavior.
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Copyright (c) 2024 Mario D. Tello Pacheco
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