Unobserved effects of monetary policy in the Peru’s departments output and unemployment

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15381/pc.v28i1.25024

Keywords:

Phillips curve, monetary policy, decentralised effects, inflation, unemployment

Abstract

This is the first article in a series of two. A NAIRU-Keynesian model is developed for Peru’s departments (regions) to analyse whether there is a stable relationship between inflation and unemployment, and inflation and the output gap as documented in the Peruvian literature. I applied GLS for model estimation. My results document a positive relationship between future inflation rates and the gap in departmental unemployment rates concerning national unemployment rates, I evidence the Phillips curve flattening at the departmental level when estimating with the output gap, which is consistent with the national aggregate models, but there is a more elastic relationship when estimating with departmental unemployment rates. This represents unobserved effects for the monetary policy maker and requires further research.

Author Biography

  • Oscar Manuel Mendoza Vargas, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima, Peru

    Economist graduated with honours from the Professional Academic School of Economics of the National University of Cajamarca. Master in Business Administration, graduated with honours from the Graduate School of the César Vallejo Private University. PhD student in Economics at the Graduate School of the Universidad Mayor de San Marcos.  Manager of the SAC Resources branch. Dean of the College of Economists of Cajamarca.
    Consultant and researcher with experience in product development of consulting and technical assistance in business and financial management, business and sector research, institutional strengthening, planning and organization. Expert and senior management advisor in policy formulation, supplier development, cluster analysis, business development services, market access, competitiveness, and business incubation. Quality management systems auditor.
    Books author Systematization of Support in Policy-Making on the Development of Local Suppliers (2007), Tools for enhancing business management (2009), Cajamarca: a mining cluster (2011), Competitive diamond for coffee and cocoa industry in Jaen and San Ignacio (2011); and Systematization of the project for strengthening the business management of Shahuindo SAC suppliers (2020). With scientific articles in the areas of supplier development, financial inclusion, business productivity, productive conglomerates, and dynamic macroeconomics.

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Published

2023-07-17

Issue

Vol. 28 No. 1 (2023)

Section

Artículos

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Copyright (c) 2023 Oscar Manuel Mendoza Vargas

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How to Cite

Unobserved effects of monetary policy in the Peru’s departments output and unemployment. (2023). Pensamiento Crítico, 28(1), 31-56. https://doi.org/10.15381/pc.v28i1.25024