Lethality econometric model validity for COVID-19 infected pleople, Peru May 2020

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DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15381/quipu.v28i57.18396

Keywords:

Coronavirus, COVID 19 tests, deceased, infected, econometric model

Abstract

Objective: To prove through an econometric model the number of deaths in Peru is significantly related to the number of infected cases of COVID-19. Method: Basic research, not experimental. For the whole country of Peru, 52 series (days) have been taken and in the specific case from the department of Moquegua, 37 series in the period from March 16 until May 10, 2020. The database of the Ministry of Health has been used, the COVID-19 Situation Chamber and the Moquegua Regional Health Management; Pearson's R and R2 are used. Regression models were generated on May 10 (after 52 days after the first death), which must be contrasted on May 31. Results: The models comply with the prediction, with a high and significant R2 and Rho. Conclusions: The death prediction models are corroborated as of May 31, 73 days after the first death in Peru. Pearson's correlation and determination levels in countries which are coming up from the COVID-19 emergency, regions throughout Peru have a high and significant relationship between infected and deceased. The bigger number of infected, the bigger number of deaths. In number and proportion are adults and older adults. 72.5% are male. In Moquegua it is shown the relationship between the levels of diagnostic tests performed and infected.

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Author Biographies

  • Javier Pedro Flores Arocutipa, Universidad Nacional de Moquegua

    PhD in Political Sciences from the AIU Doctor in Economics from the UIGV Doctor in Social Sciences from the UNSA. Doctor of Education from the UAP. Doctor of Administration from the UAP. Doctorate Candidate in Educational Administration Doctorate Candidate in Public Management and Governance, Magister in Agrarian Development Magister in Educational Technology. Magister in Public Management Teaching Appointed at the José Carlos Mariátegui University Bachelor of Economics Bachelor of Law Bachelor of Business Engineering.

  • Jorge Jinchuña Huallpa, Universidad Nacional de Moquegua

    Certified Chartered Public Accountant (CCPT), Master in Auditing Accounting (UNJBG), Doctor of Educational Sciences, graduate of Doctorate in Accounting. Undergraduate and Postgraduate Thesis Advisor and Jury, university teacher with extensive and solid experience as Auditor and in managerial positions in public and private entities. Current ordinary teacher of the Professional School of Public Management and Social Development of the National University of Moquegua (UNAM).

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Published

2020-08-31

Issue

Vol. 28 No. 57 (2020)

Section

Original papers

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Copyright (c) 2020 Javier Pedro Flores Arocutipa, Jorge Jinchuña Huallpa, Roberto Tito Condori Perez

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

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How to Cite

Flores Arocutipa, J. P., Jinchuña Huallpa, J., & Condori Perez, R. T. (2020). Lethality econometric model validity for COVID-19 infected pleople, Peru May 2020. Quipukamayoc, 28(57), 17-23. https://doi.org/10.15381/quipu.v28i57.18396