External economic factors in the growth of the Peruvian economy: An autoregressive vector model (VAR)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15381/quipu.v29i61.21628Keywords:
external economic factors, gross domestic product, vector autoregressiveAbstract
Objective: Determine the effect of external economic factors on Peru's economic growth in the period 2000-2019. Method: The investigation has a descriptive and explanatory nature, with a non-experimental design. The data collection technique employed the documentary analysis and used a census type population, considering the Peruvian and global economy. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model was estimated, from which a statistical and a structural analysis were developed. Results: It was found that the shock of the Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) reveals a growth in its participation (42,0%) on the growth of GDP in Peru in its 10th quarter. The shocks of the exchange terms registered an economic impact that fluctuates around 2,0% and the shocks of the country risk index have registered a slight increase, reaching 3,0% of the GDP variability of Peru. Conclusion: It was found that the variables considered as external factors, above all the China’s GDP, have repercussions, in one way or another, on the economic growth of the country.
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Copyright (c) 2021 Iraida Betty Chávez Lazo, Víctor Fernando Jesús Burgos Zavaleta
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