Impact of the United States and Chinese economies on Peruvian exports: Sensitivities using a multiple linear regression econometric model

Abstract

Objective: Determine the impact of American and Chinese economies affect changes in traditional and non-traditional exports and metallic mining in Peru. Methods: Quantitative study, with a non-experimental design, descriptive, relational and explanatory in scope. Pearson correlation and linear regression methods were used to corroborate the effect of the growth of these economies on Peruvian exports (traditional, non-traditional and mining). Results: Traditional and non-traditional exports, along with metal mining, exhibit greater sensitivity to changes in the GDP of the United States compared to that of China. The percentage increases for each one-point rise in the U.S. GDP are 4.84 %, 3.42 %, and 4.43 %, respectively. In the case of China, these coefficients are 2.82 %, 1.67%, and 2.23 %. These results are corroborated by the Pearson correlation coefficient (r), which exceeds 50% in all contrasts. Conclusion: The volatility of the United States and China measured by GDP generates positive changes in Peruvian exports, including metal mining. International trade of this type shows greater sensitivity to changes in the U.S. economy.